Most Burgled Suburbs in Melbourne in 2026 — And What Locals Are Doing About It

Melbourne’s burglary trend 2017 – 2026

Residential burglary in Victoria fell steadily from 34,441 in 2017 to a COVID-era low of 19,226 in 2021, a 44% drop as lockdowns kept people home. From 2022, the trend reversed. Burglary climbed every year through to 2025, when it hit 28,253 which is the highest total since the pre-COVID period. The 2026 figure of 24,277 is an improvement, but the rebound from 2021 remains significant.

Aggravated residential burglary like incidents where offenders were present or armed that tells a more alarming story. These rose from 3,035 in 2021 to 6,805 in 2025, a 124% increase in four years.

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, year ending March each year. Includes aggravated and non-aggravated residential burglary.

Key crime categories – 2017 to 2026

Residential burglary isn’t the only concern. Motor vehicle theft surged 135% between 2022 and 2025 and has stayed elevated in 2026. Retail theft more than doubled over the same period. Both crime types tend to cluster in the same suburbs as residential burglary hotspots.

Full data — Victoria crime statistics 2017–2026

★ Most recent data. Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, year ending March 2026. Figures include all recorded incidents (charges laid, no charges laid, and unsolved).

Melbourne suburbs most at risk in 2026

While CSA data is reported at LGA level rather than suburb level, local police reporting and the June 2026 Star Community report on the Casey area identify consistent hotspot clusters across Melbourne.

Why are these suburbs targeted?

Burglary is overwhelmingly opportunistic. Offenders look for homes that are easy to access and unlikely to be monitored. The suburbs above share common risk factors:

• New estates where neighbours don’t know each other and natural surveillance is low
• Low security adoption — no visible alarm, CCTV, or sensor lighting
• Proximity to arterial roads for quick entry and exit
• Longer police response times in outer suburban areas
• Daytime vacancy — working households leave homes empty during peak offending hours (10am–3pm weekdays)

Is Melbourne getting safer or not?

The 2026 figure of 24,277 is a genuine improvement on 2025’s 28,253 peak which is down 14.1%. But it remains well above the 2021 low of 19,226, and the statewide easing has not been felt evenly across Melbourne. Outer growth corridors like Casey continued to worsen even as overall numbers improved.

Aggravated burglary is the metric to watch. At 5,559 in 2026, it remains 83% higher than the 2021 figure of 3,035. The proportion of burglaries that are aggravated, where offenders were armed or present, this has grown, indicating bolder offender behaviour than five years ago.

Do security systems actually reduce break-ins?

Yes, and the evidence is consistent. Research by the Australian Institute of Criminology shows that most residential offenders actively avoid properties with visible alarm systems or CCTV, choosing easier targets instead. A visible alarm panel or camera above the front door is often enough.

The effect compounds across a street. When most homes on a block have visible security, offenders typically move to a different area entirely rather than targeting the one unsecured property.

How to protect your home